On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Inter Miami CF and FC Cincinnati collide in a do-or-die MLS Playoffs Eastern Conference SemifinalTQL Stadium — a match that could define the trajectory of both franchises this season. Despite FC Cincinnati finishing the regular season with the better win-loss record (20-9-5 to Inter Miami’s 19-7-8), oddsmakers have installed the visitors as favorites, a reflection of their explosive offense and the gravitational pull of Lionel Messi. The stakes? The winner advances to the Eastern Conference final. The loser? Season over.
Why Inter Miami Is the Favorite — Even When the Crowd Isn’t
The betting markets tell a story of mismatched perception. While FC Cincinnati enjoys a raucous home advantage and a 12-5 ATS record on the road, public betting data shows 100% of wagers are placed on them — a classic case of emotional betting overriding logic. Meanwhile, Inter Miami CF sits at +100 on the moneyline, with a -0.5 point spread. That’s not a heavy favorite — it’s a cautious one. But the numbers behind the curtain tell a different tale. Inter Miami scored 150 goals in 37 regular season matches — an average of 4.05 per game. That’s not just potent; it’s historic. In their last 11 matches, they’ve netted 35 times. In their final playoff game against Nashville SC, they won 4-0, with Messi scoring twice, assisting twice, winning 12 duels, and drawing seven fouls. Tadeo Allende added two goals and an assist. Jordi Alba delivered three crosses. This isn’t a team peaking — it’s a machine firing on all cylinders.FC Cincinnati’s Quiet Strength and the Home Crowd Factor
Don’t mistake underdog status for weakness. FC Cincinnati finished with more wins, and their 2-1 victory over Columbus Crew last weekend proved they can win tight, gritty games. Their 3-5-2 formation, anchored by veteran defenders Geoff Cameron and Matt Miazga, has been a fortress at home — 7-9-1 ATS at TQL Stadium, but with a 7-9-1 over/under record suggesting they’re capable of high-scoring affairs too. Ender Echenique, returning from injury, will start in midfield — a crucial boost. His energy and tackling could disrupt Inter Miami’s rhythm. But here’s the twist: FC Cincinnati has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10 home games. That’s not a trend you ignore. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 matches when scoring first. But can they score first against a team that averages over four goals per game?The Messi Effect — And the Return of Suarez
This isn’t just about stats. It’s about Lionel Messi. His presence changes the game. He doesn’t just score — he commands space, draws defenders, and creates chaos. In the last three playoff matches, he’s netted five goals. He’s the reason Inter Miami’s attack is so lethal. But don’t sleep on the return of Luis Suarez. After serving a suspension, he’s back in training and available for selection. Head coach Javier Mascherano made headlines by shutting down rumors that the team plays better without Suarez. “We’re stronger with him,” he said on November 22. That’s a statement of intent. With Suarez back, Inter Miami’s front line becomes a nightmare: Messi, Suarez, Allende — three elite finishers who’ve combined for 47 goals this season. That’s not a lineup. That’s a symphony of destruction.
Betting Lines, Trends, and What Analysts Are Saying
The over/under is set at 3.5 goals — and nearly every analyst is leaning OVER. Pickswise recommends the OVER at +116, citing Inter Miami’s 35 goals in 11 games and FC Cincinnati’s tendency to play open, attacking soccer. Futbol24 predicts both teams to score — odds of 1.45 at Mozzart — and for good reason. FC Cincinnati scored in 14 of their last 17 home games. Inter Miami has scored in 36 of their 37 matches. FanDuel’s markets show even more depth: “To Score or Assist” is -220 for FC Cincinnati, +110 for Inter Miami. That’s a massive gap — but it’s misleading. It reflects the public’s belief that FC Cincinnati will dominate possession. But Inter Miami doesn’t need possession. They need one chance. And with Messi, one chance is all it takes.What’s at Stake — Beyond the Next Round
This isn’t just about advancing. It’s about legacy. For Inter Miami CF, this is their best shot at their first MLS Cup since Messi arrived. For FC Cincinnati, it’s a chance to prove they belong among the elite — not just as a regional favorite, but as a national contender. A win here would catapult them into the spotlight. A loss? It’s a season of promise, ended in the semifinals. The atmosphere at TQL Stadium will be deafening. The crowd will believe. But belief doesn’t beat a 4.05 goals-per-game machine led by the greatest player of all time.
What’s Next?
The winner faces the victor of the other Eastern semifinal — likely either New York City FC or Philadelphia Union. But first, they must survive this. And if history holds, the team with the better attack wins. Not the better record. Not the louder crowd. The better attack.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Inter Miami the favorite despite FC Cincinnati having more wins?
Win-loss record doesn’t tell the full story. Inter Miami scored 150 goals in 37 games — an MLS-leading 4.05 per match — while FC Cincinnati averaged just 2.1. Inter Miami’s offense is historic, and with Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez firing, their ceiling is far higher. Betting markets reflect quality over quantity.
How does Lionel Messi’s performance impact betting odds?
Messi’s presence elevates Inter Miami’s goal probability by 38% according to advanced analytics. In his last five appearances, Inter Miami averaged 3.8 goals per game; without him, it’s 2.1. His ability to draw defenders and create chances makes the OVER 3.5 goals the most reliable bet, even with a high line.
Is FC Cincinnati’s home advantage enough to overcome the odds?
Home advantage matters, but not when the opponent averages over four goals per game. FC Cincinnati’s home over/under record is 7-9-1, meaning they’ve gone UNDER in nearly half their home games. They’re a high-pressure team, but Inter Miami’s defense has allowed fewer than 1.2 goals per game since September. Momentum favors the visitors.
What role does Luis Suarez’s return play?
Suarez’s return transforms Inter Miami from a Messi-led attack into a lethal duo. He’s scored 17 goals this season and brings physicality, movement, and clinical finishing. With him and Messi on the field, Inter Miami has scored 3+ goals in 11 of their last 12 matches. His presence makes the ‘Both Teams to Score’ bet far riskier for bettors backing FC Cincinnati.
Why is 100% of public betting on FC Cincinnati if they’re the underdog?
This is classic emotional betting: fans believe in their team’s grit and home crowd. But public betting often overvalues narrative and underweights data. Inter Miami’s offensive output is statistically unmatched. The odds are set to attract action on the underdog — and they have. Smart money is on the visitors.
What’s the most likely final score?
Based on trends, form, and goal averages, the most probable outcome is Inter Miami CF 3-2 FC Cincinnati. Both teams score, the over hits, and Messi either scores or assists the decisive goal. The home crowd will make it dramatic — but not enough to overcome the firepower.
